Tuesday, October 21, 2003
Positional Analysis - Outfielders
As I finally start to accept the fact that the Giants bowed out in the first round of the playoffs, I feel it is necessary to look at what this team needs to do to give them a shot at returning to the World Series in 2004. But before I offer some different plans the Giants could pursue this off-season, I would like to evaluate what the team’s current situation is at each position, and identify which players may be available to acquire. Westwood Blues and Waiting for Boof, who have looked at the rightfield and first base, respectively, have gotten a bit of a head start on me. I’m going to start off by taking a detailed look at the Giants overall outfield situation. There will be some overlap with different infield positions, so bear with me when I venture into potential 1B scenarios. I’ve included AVG/OBP/SLG stats for most players for the 2003 season, and for the three year period of 2001 to 2003. Generally speaking, the previous three years are the best indicator of what to expect from a player in the upcoming season. One other important thing to keep in mind is that any signing of a free agent who has been offered arbitration by his current team will cost the Giants compensatory draft picks. For a brief history of salary arbitration, I’d recommend reading this piece by Doug Pappas. So without further ado, here is the situation for the Giants outfield…
Under Contract
Barry Bonds, LF - $15 million ($16mm salary + $4mm bonus - $5mm deferred)
Nothing needs to be said about Bonds’ ability and his value to this team. He is the best player in the game, and Brian Sabean needs to tailor the lineup to take advantage of what Bonds does with the bat. This means high OBP guys in front of him, allowing him to hit with men on base, and high SLG guys behind him. In other words, no more Rich Aurilia in the 3 hole, which is where Barry should be hitting, and no more Benito Santiago in the 5 spot.
However, there is one issue regarding Bonds that the Giants are going to have to address. In recent months, the idea that Barry may eventually move to the American League and DH has been addressed. If I’m Brian Sabean, I would not allow this to happen, especially while Bonds is chasing Hank Aaron’s home run mark. As Bonds nears #755, this franchise will have a unique opportunity to latch on to the game’s most prominent record. Additionally, the revenue that the team will be able to generate during this chase should help subsidize some of Barry’s contract. Because of this, the team needs to talk with Barry about a potential move to first base in the next couple of seasons. While it would be an adjustment, such a move would allow Barry to play more often without incurring as much of a physical toll that comes with playing in the outfield.
Marquis Grissom, CF - $2 million
The epitome of a platoon player, Grissom found himself playing almost every day this past season. In reality, Grissom should not see the starting lineup when a right hander is on the mound. A center fielder with a sub-300 OBP is a serious liability against right handed pitching, especially when his defense is nothing special. As a platoon player, Marquis can be quite valuable (although not $2mm valuable). But it’s important the Brian Sabean finds somebody to share time in center that can hit right handers. Unfortunately, my gut says that Sabean is quite comfortable throwing Grissom out there everyday again.
Todd Linden, RF/LF
As the first real positional prospect the franchise has developed in years, Linden is looked at as a future starting corner outfielder for the Giants. But when is that future? Coming into last year, it looked like Linden would be ready to take over a starting spot in 2004. But Sabean, as he should, will not guarantee anything for Linden, stating that he will likely begin the season down in Fresno. The thinking here is that if Linden's not starting for the Giants then he's better off playing every day at AAA than coming off the bench at SBC. Linden is a switch hitter with patience, power, and pretty good speed for player of his size. Hopefully, he will be ready to claim a starting role early in the season. But if Sabean thinks that he may be able to, then the Giants need to either sign a big bat at one of the infield positions, or have Bonds make the aforementioned move to 1B while signing a bat for the outfield.
Option Players
Jose Cruz, Jr. RF - $4 million mutual option, $300k buyout
Good luck in your future endeavors, Mr. Cruz.
After his great display of poor clutch hitting and disastrously bad defense in the NLDS, it’s easy to say that Cruz should not be brought back. The fact is, it would have been hard to justify putting Cruz in RF next year even before the playoffs began. The 2003 postseason aside, Cruz is a very good defender in RF. Unfortunately, he doesn’t bring enough with his bat to justify sticking him in a corner outfield spot. While Cruz does take a lot of walks, he has shown over the course of his career that he doesn’t hit for a high enough average, keeping him from being the OBP machine I’d like to see. That combined with his mediocre power numbers are enough to keep from bringing him back next season. In no way is Cruz worth $4 million.
Giants Free Agents
Jeffrey Hammonds
I’ve seen some support for bringing back Hammonds as an extra outfielder. Frankly, I don’t see why. Since leaving Colorado after the 2000 season, he hasn’t shown any ability to be a productive major league hitter. If he wants to sign on as a fifth outfielder, I wouldn’t be opposed. But there’s no reason to pay him much more than the league minimum.
Marvin Benard
2001-03
259/310/411 overall
354/386/554 vs LH
248/301/393 vs RH
Benard won’t be back.
Arbitration Eligible Giants
Pedro Feliz - 3B, 1B, OF
While that was a nice little power spike, Feliz is still not a guy who should be starting on a regular basis. With a .278 OBP, Pedro is an out machine, and having a guy like that in a corner outfield spot, or at first base for that matter, could have disastrous consequences for this offense. With his ability to play the corner infield spots and backup Bonds in left, Feliz is a valuable guy to have on the bench. If the team could sign him to a 3-year deal for $500k per year, that would be great. I doubt he’ll agree to that, so expect to see him get about that much in arbitration.
Now on to the fun part…
Potential Acquisitions
Vladimir Guerrero - RF
The crown jewel of this year’s free agent market, Guerrero would be the perfect addition to this Giants team. In addition to hitting for average and power, Vlad has started to display more patience at the plate in the past two seasons. Now look at those numbers and remember one other thing: he’s only 27 years old. He’s just entering his peak. The only risk is that of injury. Guerrero missed time this season with back problems, the type of nagging injury that can have chronic effects over the course of one’s career. But judging by his performance over the last two months of the season, he looks like he will remain productive. Vladimir Guerrero would not only be the perfect signing to play alongside Barry Bonds, but he would provide the cornerstone that the team will need when Barry eventually starts to feel the effects of aging.
Unfortunately, the Giants’ brass has gone out of their way to say that they will not be players in the market for Guerrero. I’m not convinced that this team will cut payroll into the mid-70 million dollar range. I think that with a softening of the free agent market, this team will be part of the bidding process for players like Guerrero and Gary Sheffield. Felipe Alou’s presence can only help to draw Guerrero to the Bay Area.
Gary Sheffield - RF
The next best thing… Choosing between Gary Sheffield and Vladimir Guerrero is like choosing between Elle Macpherson and Heidi Klum. One is an aging great who is still going strong, while the other has been among the best for a few years, but still has many great years remaining. The advantages of signing Sheffield over Guerrero are that it would not take as long-term of a deal, and he would probably cost a few million dollars less. As is the case for Vlad with Alou, Sheffield may be drawn to the Giants due to the friendship between him and Bonds. Signing either of these players would instantly give the Giants one of the strongest lineups in baseball, even with the holes left to fill at shortstop and first base.
J.D. Drew
Ladies and Gentlemen, I give you Brian Giles, reincarnate!
An has been the case for much of his young career, the underappreciated Drew was saddled with injuries this past season. Those injuries, along with Tony LaRussa’s refusal to put his potent bat in the lineup everday, meant that Drew only had 323 plate appearances in 2003, with only 61 of those coming against left-handers.
Taking budgetary concerns into account, J.D. Drew would be the perfect acquisition for this team. He mashes right handed pitching, which is a severe area of need for the Giants lineup. And looking at the period of 2001 to 2003, his platoon split is not weak enough to justify sitting him against lefties. Drew will be 28 years old this next season, and a player with his ability at his age should be playing every day. When healthy, he is capable of handling center field, which would allow the Giants to sit Grissom against right-handers. And if he does have some nagging injuries, his bat is valuable enough that the Giants could justify giving him time at 1B. And with Stan Conte, the best trainer in baseball, on my staff, I’d be willing to risk that the Giants can keep him healthy enough play on a near everyday basis. If I’m Brian Sabean, and I don’t have the money to go after Guerrero or Sheffield, then Drew is my first priority.
With the issue of how he would fit with this team resolved, the question is, how much would it take to get Drew in a Giants uniform? His injury history and LaRussa’s lack of faith make him affordable. With Pujols due for a huge contract soon, the word out of St. Louis is that the Cardinals may be shopping Drew in an effort to keep the payroll down. Rumors are floating around that a number of teams are sitting back and waiting to see if the Cards non-tender Drew, which would make him a free agent. Instead of playing this game, Sabean should be on the phone and finding out what it will take to get him in a trade. If Jocketty really is considering non-tendering Drew and letting him go for nothing, then it shouldn’t take much to acquire him. And if Sabean could lock up drew for $4-5 million for 4 or 5 years, it would be a risk worth taking.
Carl Everett
Hmmm... I never knew our favorite debunker of the myth of dinosaurs had such a strong platoon split. Well that just goes to show how wrong perception can be sometimes. Considering the Giants weakness in hitting RHPs, Everett looks like a pretty good fit for this team. Sure, he carries a lot of baggage, but the fact is, he can flat out hit. He would be a good fit for Pac Be... er, SBC's vast right field, and he's able to slide over to center when necessary. Much like Drew, Everett has something of an injury history. But while that's a knock against a player, it also makes him more affordable. Carl Everett would be a great fit hitting fifth against right-handers.
Jose Guillen - free agent
Those 2003 stats are All-Star type numbers. Unfortunately, you can't put too much stock in them. Looking at Guillen’s numbers starting with the 2000 season, 2003 looks likely to be a statistical outlier. The improvement in OBP is completely attributable to his higher batting average. And with the average likely to fall back to the .285 range, that OBP will fall back to around .333 again. But there is some reason for optimism As a player just entering his peak power years, the slugging that Guillen displayed in 2003 may be a good sign. This guy was a monster when he was coming up through Pittsburgh’s minor league system, so this may be a sign that he’s finally starting to realize his potential. Nevertheless, giving a long-term contract to a player who hasn’t displayed any sustained success at the major league level would be a substantial financial risk.
Jose Guillen, at the price of around $3 million, would not be a bad signing. But he won't be a focal point of your team's offense. A signing of him would need to be accompanied by the acquisition of another productive bat.
Mike Cameron – free agent
With the possible exception of Darin Erstad, Mike Cameron is the best defensive center fielder in baseball. For that reason alone, Cameron is a worthwhile candidate for acquisition. The problem, at least on the surface, is that he hasn’t hit very much. But let’s look at a different split:
2003
235/329/429 home
268/357/432 road
2001-03
224/324/385 home
278/364/510 road
It appears that Safeco really sucks the life out of Cameron’s bat. If Cameron leaves Seattle this off-season, he may prove to be an offensive asset for some lucky team. Unfortunately for Cameron, SBC Park is probably the most comparable stadium to Safeco Field, so you couldn’t expect that home/road split to suddenly disappear where he to sign with the Giants. But as a right-handed batter, the likelihood is that there should be a sizeable improvement. As for how he fits on this team… Cameron’s presence on defense would help the pitching staff immensely. The only problem is how the team would handle Grissom. If Grissom were to become a platoon outfielder in right, then this could be a very good move. But if Grissom became an everyday corner right fielder, keeping his hacktastic bat against RHPs in the lineup, the Giants offense would suffer immensely.
An affordable three year deal for Cameron would be ideal if the Giants pursue him. He will be 31 this season, so there is a question of how long he will be able to keep up his phenomenal defense. Once his defense becomes league average, he is no longer an asset.
Shannon Stewart
Shannon Stewart is a good player, and a valuable guy to have at the top of your lineup. That said, he is not an MVP-caliber player, as some have foolishly argued this year. He played well after coming over to Minnesota in a trade for Bobby Kielty this summer, but he did not put up eye-popping numbers. Barring a move of Bonds to first base, Stewart is not a very good fit on this team. SBC’s right field is not a good home for a poor defensive outfielder with a very weak arm. Plus, Stewart's strong play on a division winner will likely cause him to be overvalued on the free agent market. So don’t expect this to happen. Nevertheless, imagine a lineup that begins like this:
Ray Durham
Shannon Stewart
Barry Bonds
Edgardo Alfonso
Adding another solid bat at 1B or LF (once again, if Bonds were to change positions) could make this a very potent offense. Stewart has some serious speed on the basepaths, so whenever he advances to second after Barry is walked, he would be a bigger threat than most players to score from second on a single. Minnesota, possessing a plethora of solid corner outfielders, needs to improve at 2B and SS. I predict that the Twins will defy logic and resign Stewart instead.
Raul Ibanez
At 31 years old, Ibanez probably isn’t a good investment for anything beyond 2 years. He’s not particularly apt on the defensive side of things, so RF in San Francisco isn’t the most appropriate place for him. He could be a fit at 1B, but I worry that we may see a decline similar to what we witnessed with J.T. Snow a few years ago. And while the production Ibanez has provided for Kansas City the past few years has been impressive, I worry that his short history of success with the bat may not last much longer.
Jeromy Burnitz
No thank you. You’ve got to love his Isolated Slugging percentage (ISO = SLG-AVG), but Burnitz, who will be 35 next season, is a prime candidate to see a quick and sharp decline in his power numbers. And with that ugly OBP, I wouldn’t want him around my team when it happens.
Raul Mondesi
Ugh. I don’t consider Mondesi a candidate for job with the Giants, but I have this worry deep down that Sabean might. It’s not likely, but it’s just the sort of thing that would cause me to give up on the current management of the team. Yeah, he kills lefties. Whoopty-Doo. It’s not too difficult to find right-handed corner outfielders that can feast on southpaws. Luckily, Mondesi has something of a bad rep in the clubhouse, which by itself should be enough to keep the Giants away.
Juan Gonzalez
While Juan-gone has been overrated by baseball’s mainstream media for most of his career, he is still a very productive hitter. As has always been the case with Gonzalez, he doesn’t often step into the batters box with the idea that a walk is acceptable. But with an average that has generally hovered between .290 and .325 to go along with some very impressive power, Gonzales is still a good hitter to hit in the fifth spot, with the idea that he can drive in the high-OBP guys at the top of the lineup. For the purposes of filling out the 2004 Giants team, Gonzalez is an unlikely target. He’s not a very good defensive player, and he has proven to be extremely fragile in the latter parts of his career. Although the feeling isn’t mutual, he wants to stay in Texas. In all likelihood, Gonzalez will stay in the junior circuit where he can DH.
Under Contract
Barry Bonds, LF - $15 million ($16mm salary + $4mm bonus - $5mm deferred)
| vs LH | vs RH | Overall | |||||||||||||||||
| Year | AB | BA | OBP | SLG | AB | BA | OBP | SLG | AB | BA | OBP | SLG | |||||||
| 2000 | 148 | .230 | .320 | .527 | 332 | .340 | .487 | .759 | 480 | .306 | .440 | .688 | |||||||
| 2001 | 141 | .312 | .487 | .752 | 335 | .334 | .526 | .910 | 476 | .328 | .515 | .863 | |||||||
| 2002 | 125 | .384 | .556 | .976 | 278 | .363 | .592 | .719 | 403 | .370 | .582 | .799 | |||||||
| 2003 | 124 | .363 | .509 | .790 | 266 | .331 | .537 | .729 | 390 | .341 | .529 | .749 | |||||||
Nothing needs to be said about Bonds’ ability and his value to this team. He is the best player in the game, and Brian Sabean needs to tailor the lineup to take advantage of what Bonds does with the bat. This means high OBP guys in front of him, allowing him to hit with men on base, and high SLG guys behind him. In other words, no more Rich Aurilia in the 3 hole, which is where Barry should be hitting, and no more Benito Santiago in the 5 spot.
However, there is one issue regarding Bonds that the Giants are going to have to address. In recent months, the idea that Barry may eventually move to the American League and DH has been addressed. If I’m Brian Sabean, I would not allow this to happen, especially while Bonds is chasing Hank Aaron’s home run mark. As Bonds nears #755, this franchise will have a unique opportunity to latch on to the game’s most prominent record. Additionally, the revenue that the team will be able to generate during this chase should help subsidize some of Barry’s contract. Because of this, the team needs to talk with Barry about a potential move to first base in the next couple of seasons. While it would be an adjustment, such a move would allow Barry to play more often without incurring as much of a physical toll that comes with playing in the outfield.
Marquis Grissom, CF - $2 million
| vs LH | vs RH | Overall | |||||||||||||||||
| Year | AB | BA | OBP | SLG | AB | BA | OBP | SLG | AB | BA | OBP | SLG | |||||||
| 2000 | 125 | .304 | .343 | .408 | 470 | .228 | .273 | .336 | 595 | .244 | .288 | .351 | |||||||
| 2001 | 134 | .254 | .270 | .500 | 314 | .207 | .242 | .363 | 448 | .221 | .250 | .404 | |||||||
| 2002 | 133 | .293 | .354 | .617 | 210 | .267 | .299 | .443 | 343 | .277 | .321 | .510 | |||||||
| 2003 | 140 | .364 | .399 | .657 | 447 | .280 | .298 | .409 | 587 | .300 | .322 | .468 | |||||||
The epitome of a platoon player, Grissom found himself playing almost every day this past season. In reality, Grissom should not see the starting lineup when a right hander is on the mound. A center fielder with a sub-300 OBP is a serious liability against right handed pitching, especially when his defense is nothing special. As a platoon player, Marquis can be quite valuable (although not $2mm valuable). But it’s important the Brian Sabean finds somebody to share time in center that can hit right handers. Unfortunately, my gut says that Sabean is quite comfortable throwing Grissom out there everyday again.
Todd Linden, RF/LF
As the first real positional prospect the franchise has developed in years, Linden is looked at as a future starting corner outfielder for the Giants. But when is that future? Coming into last year, it looked like Linden would be ready to take over a starting spot in 2004. But Sabean, as he should, will not guarantee anything for Linden, stating that he will likely begin the season down in Fresno. The thinking here is that if Linden's not starting for the Giants then he's better off playing every day at AAA than coming off the bench at SBC. Linden is a switch hitter with patience, power, and pretty good speed for player of his size. Hopefully, he will be ready to claim a starting role early in the season. But if Sabean thinks that he may be able to, then the Giants need to either sign a big bat at one of the infield positions, or have Bonds make the aforementioned move to 1B while signing a bat for the outfield.
Option Players
Jose Cruz, Jr. RF - $4 million mutual option, $300k buyout
| vs LH | vs RH | Overall | |||||||||||||||||
| Year | AB | BA | OBP | SLG | AB | BA | OBP | SLG | AB | BA | OBP | SLG | |||||||
| 2000 | 162 | .290 | .339 | .481 | 441 | .224 | .317 | .460 | 603 | .242 | .323 | .466 | |||||||
| 2001 | 138 | .290 | .355 | .543 | 439 | .269 | .317 | .526 | 577 | .274 | .326 | .530 | |||||||
| 2002 | 142 | .225 | .275 | .345 | 324 | .253 | .334 | .478 | 466 | .245 | .317 | .438 | |||||||
| 2003 | 135 | .304 | .405 | .519 | 404 | .233 | .353 | .379 | 539 | .250 | .366 | .414 | |||||||
Good luck in your future endeavors, Mr. Cruz.
After his great display of poor clutch hitting and disastrously bad defense in the NLDS, it’s easy to say that Cruz should not be brought back. The fact is, it would have been hard to justify putting Cruz in RF next year even before the playoffs began. The 2003 postseason aside, Cruz is a very good defender in RF. Unfortunately, he doesn’t bring enough with his bat to justify sticking him in a corner outfield spot. While Cruz does take a lot of walks, he has shown over the course of his career that he doesn’t hit for a high enough average, keeping him from being the OBP machine I’d like to see. That combined with his mediocre power numbers are enough to keep from bringing him back next season. In no way is Cruz worth $4 million.
Giants Free Agents
Jeffrey Hammonds
| vs LH | vs RH | Overall | |||||||||||||||||
| Year | AB | BA | OBP | SLG | AB | BA | OBP | SLG | AB | BA | OBP | SLG | |||||||
| 2000 | 98 | .378 | .439 | .633 | 356 | .323 | .382 | .500 | 454 | .335 | .395 | .529 | |||||||
| 2001 | 38 | .237 | .293 | .289 | 136 | .250 | .320 | .463 | 174 | .247 | .314 | .425 | |||||||
| 2002 | 84 | .298 | .381 | .512 | 364 | .247 | .320 | .371 | 448 | .257 | .332 | .397 | |||||||
| 2003 | 25 | .360 | .429 | .400 | 107 | .215 | .306 | .430 | 132 | .242 | .329 | .424 | |||||||
I’ve seen some support for bringing back Hammonds as an extra outfielder. Frankly, I don’t see why. Since leaving Colorado after the 2000 season, he hasn’t shown any ability to be a productive major league hitter. If he wants to sign on as a fifth outfielder, I wouldn’t be opposed. But there’s no reason to pay him much more than the league minimum.
Marvin Benard
2001-03
259/310/411 overall
354/386/554 vs LH
248/301/393 vs RH
Benard won’t be back.
Arbitration Eligible Giants
Pedro Feliz - 3B, 1B, OF
| vs LH | vs RH | Overall | |||||||||||||||||
| Year | AB | BA | OBP | SLG | AB | BA | OBP | SLG | AB | BA | OBP | SLG | |||||||
| 2001 | 58 | .397 | .413 | .672 | 162 | .167 | .209 | .265 | 220 | .227 | .264 | .373 | |||||||
| 2002 | 49 | .184 | .200 | .204 | 97 | .289 | .320 | .402 | 146 | .253 | .281 | .336 | |||||||
| 2003 | 52 | .231 | .273 | .500 | 183 | .251 | .280 | .519 | 235 | .247 | .278 | .515 | |||||||
While that was a nice little power spike, Feliz is still not a guy who should be starting on a regular basis. With a .278 OBP, Pedro is an out machine, and having a guy like that in a corner outfield spot, or at first base for that matter, could have disastrous consequences for this offense. With his ability to play the corner infield spots and backup Bonds in left, Feliz is a valuable guy to have on the bench. If the team could sign him to a 3-year deal for $500k per year, that would be great. I doubt he’ll agree to that, so expect to see him get about that much in arbitration.
Now on to the fun part…
Potential Acquisitions
Vladimir Guerrero - RF
| vs LH | vs RH | Overall | |||||||||||||||||
| Year | AB | BA | OBP | SLG | AB | BA | OBP | SLG | AB | BA | OBP | SLG | |||||||
| 2000 | 133 | .376 | .447 | .744 | 438 | .336 | .399 | .639 | 571 | .345 | .410 | .664 | |||||||
| 2001 | 135 | .319 | .420 | .607 | 464 | .304 | .363 | .554 | 599 | .307 | .377 | .566 | |||||||
| 2002 | 124 | .290 | .443 | .500 | 490 | .347 | .410 | .616 | 614 | .336 | .417 | .593 | |||||||
| 2003 | 84 | .393 | .485 | .810 | 310 | .313 | .410 | .526 | 394 | .330 | .426 | .586 | |||||||
The crown jewel of this year’s free agent market, Guerrero would be the perfect addition to this Giants team. In addition to hitting for average and power, Vlad has started to display more patience at the plate in the past two seasons. Now look at those numbers and remember one other thing: he’s only 27 years old. He’s just entering his peak. The only risk is that of injury. Guerrero missed time this season with back problems, the type of nagging injury that can have chronic effects over the course of one’s career. But judging by his performance over the last two months of the season, he looks like he will remain productive. Vladimir Guerrero would not only be the perfect signing to play alongside Barry Bonds, but he would provide the cornerstone that the team will need when Barry eventually starts to feel the effects of aging.
Unfortunately, the Giants’ brass has gone out of their way to say that they will not be players in the market for Guerrero. I’m not convinced that this team will cut payroll into the mid-70 million dollar range. I think that with a softening of the free agent market, this team will be part of the bidding process for players like Guerrero and Gary Sheffield. Felipe Alou’s presence can only help to draw Guerrero to the Bay Area.
Gary Sheffield - RF
| vs LH | vs RH | Overall | |||||||||||||||||
| Year | AB | BA | OBP | SLG | AB | BA | OBP | SLG | AB | BA | OBP | SLG | |||||||
| 2000 | 123 | .285 | .425 | .512 | 378 | .339 | .442 | .685 | 501 | .325 | .438 | .643 | |||||||
| 2001 | 107 | .374 | .457 | .720 | 408 | .294 | .407 | .547 | 515 | .311 | .417 | .583 | |||||||
| 2002 | 82 | .293 | .408 | .415 | 410 | .310 | .403 | .532 | 492 | .307 | .404 | .512 | |||||||
| 2003 | 123 | .341 | .450 | .675 | 453 | .327 | .410 | .585 | 576 | .330 | .419 | .604 | |||||||
The next best thing… Choosing between Gary Sheffield and Vladimir Guerrero is like choosing between Elle Macpherson and Heidi Klum. One is an aging great who is still going strong, while the other has been among the best for a few years, but still has many great years remaining. The advantages of signing Sheffield over Guerrero are that it would not take as long-term of a deal, and he would probably cost a few million dollars less. As is the case for Vlad with Alou, Sheffield may be drawn to the Giants due to the friendship between him and Bonds. Signing either of these players would instantly give the Giants one of the strongest lineups in baseball, even with the holes left to fill at shortstop and first base.
J.D. Drew
| vs LH | vs RH | Overall | |||||||||||||||||
| Year | AB | BA | OBP | SLG | AB | BA | OBP | SLG | AB | BA | OBP | SLG | |||||||
| 2000 | 74 | .257 | .345 | .297 | 333 | .303 | .413 | .520 | 407 | .295 | .401 | .479 | |||||||
| 2001 | 83 | .289 | .371 | .530 | 292 | .332 | .426 | .637 | 375 | .323 | .414 | .613 | |||||||
| 2002 | 84 | .262 | .351 | .417 | 340 | .250 | .348 | .432 | 424 | .252 | .349 | .429 | |||||||
| 2003 | 55 | .218 | .306 | .418 | 232 | .306 | .390 | .534 | 287 | .289 | .374 | .512 | |||||||
Ladies and Gentlemen, I give you Brian Giles, reincarnate!
An has been the case for much of his young career, the underappreciated Drew was saddled with injuries this past season. Those injuries, along with Tony LaRussa’s refusal to put his potent bat in the lineup everday, meant that Drew only had 323 plate appearances in 2003, with only 61 of those coming against left-handers.
Taking budgetary concerns into account, J.D. Drew would be the perfect acquisition for this team. He mashes right handed pitching, which is a severe area of need for the Giants lineup. And looking at the period of 2001 to 2003, his platoon split is not weak enough to justify sitting him against lefties. Drew will be 28 years old this next season, and a player with his ability at his age should be playing every day. When healthy, he is capable of handling center field, which would allow the Giants to sit Grissom against right-handers. And if he does have some nagging injuries, his bat is valuable enough that the Giants could justify giving him time at 1B. And with Stan Conte, the best trainer in baseball, on my staff, I’d be willing to risk that the Giants can keep him healthy enough play on a near everyday basis. If I’m Brian Sabean, and I don’t have the money to go after Guerrero or Sheffield, then Drew is my first priority.
With the issue of how he would fit with this team resolved, the question is, how much would it take to get Drew in a Giants uniform? His injury history and LaRussa’s lack of faith make him affordable. With Pujols due for a huge contract soon, the word out of St. Louis is that the Cardinals may be shopping Drew in an effort to keep the payroll down. Rumors are floating around that a number of teams are sitting back and waiting to see if the Cards non-tender Drew, which would make him a free agent. Instead of playing this game, Sabean should be on the phone and finding out what it will take to get him in a trade. If Jocketty really is considering non-tendering Drew and letting him go for nothing, then it shouldn’t take much to acquire him. And if Sabean could lock up drew for $4-5 million for 4 or 5 years, it would be a risk worth taking.
Carl Everett
| vs LH | vs RH | Overall | |||||||||||||||||
| Year | AB | BA | OBP | SLG | AB | BA | OBP | SLG | AB | BA | OBP | SLG | |||||||
| 2000 | 132 | .348 | .411 | .515 | 364 | .283 | .359 | .613 | 496 | .300 | .373 | .587 | |||||||
| 2001 | 132 | .197 | .237 | .318 | 277 | .285 | .361 | .495 | 409 | .257 | .323 | .438 | |||||||
| 2002 | 91 | .220 | .280 | .374 | 283 | .283 | .350 | .459 | 374 | .267 | .333 | .439 | |||||||
| 2003 | 138 | .254 | .320 | .377 | 388 | .299 | .382 | .557 | 526 | .287 | .366 | .510 | |||||||
Hmmm... I never knew our favorite debunker of the myth of dinosaurs had such a strong platoon split. Well that just goes to show how wrong perception can be sometimes. Considering the Giants weakness in hitting RHPs, Everett looks like a pretty good fit for this team. Sure, he carries a lot of baggage, but the fact is, he can flat out hit. He would be a good fit for Pac Be... er, SBC's vast right field, and he's able to slide over to center when necessary. Much like Drew, Everett has something of an injury history. But while that's a knock against a player, it also makes him more affordable. Carl Everett would be a great fit hitting fifth against right-handers.
Jose Guillen - free agent
| vs LH | vs RH | Overall | |||||||||||||||||
| Year | AB | BA | OBP | SLG | AB | BA | OBP | SLG | AB | BA | OBP | SLG | |||||||
| 2000 | 87 | .195 | .293 | .414 | 229 | .275 | .331 | .437 | 316 | .253 | .320 | .430 | |||||||
| 2001 | 24 | .375 | .400 | .542 | 111 | .252 | .300 | .342 | 135 | .274 | .317 | .378 | |||||||
| 2002 | 107 | .252 | .283 | .364 | 133 | .226 | .290 | .368 | 240 | .238 | .287 | .367 | |||||||
| 2003 | 130 | .315 | .371 | .554 | 355 | .310 | .355 | .575 | 485 | .311 | .359 | .569 | |||||||
Those 2003 stats are All-Star type numbers. Unfortunately, you can't put too much stock in them. Looking at Guillen’s numbers starting with the 2000 season, 2003 looks likely to be a statistical outlier. The improvement in OBP is completely attributable to his higher batting average. And with the average likely to fall back to the .285 range, that OBP will fall back to around .333 again. But there is some reason for optimism As a player just entering his peak power years, the slugging that Guillen displayed in 2003 may be a good sign. This guy was a monster when he was coming up through Pittsburgh’s minor league system, so this may be a sign that he’s finally starting to realize his potential. Nevertheless, giving a long-term contract to a player who hasn’t displayed any sustained success at the major league level would be a substantial financial risk.
Jose Guillen, at the price of around $3 million, would not be a bad signing. But he won't be a focal point of your team's offense. A signing of him would need to be accompanied by the acquisition of another productive bat.
Mike Cameron – free agent
| vs LH | vs RH | Overall | |||||||||||||||||
| Year | AB | BA | OBP | SLG | AB | BA | OBP | SLG | AB | BA | OBP | SLG | |||||||
| 2000 | 110 | .273 | .352 | .427 | 433 | .266 | .368 | .441 | 543 | .267 | .365 | .438 | |||||||
| 2001 | 136 | .301 | .388 | .566 | 404 | .255 | .340 | .450 | 540 | .267 | .353 | .480 | |||||||
| 2002 | 142 | .239 | .343 | .535 | 403 | .238 | .338 | .409 | 545 | .239 | .340 | .442 | |||||||
| 2003 | 147 | .286 | .365 | .442 | 387 | .240 | .336 | .426 | 534 | .253 | .344 | .431 | |||||||
With the possible exception of Darin Erstad, Mike Cameron is the best defensive center fielder in baseball. For that reason alone, Cameron is a worthwhile candidate for acquisition. The problem, at least on the surface, is that he hasn’t hit very much. But let’s look at a different split:
2003
235/329/429 home
268/357/432 road
2001-03
224/324/385 home
278/364/510 road
It appears that Safeco really sucks the life out of Cameron’s bat. If Cameron leaves Seattle this off-season, he may prove to be an offensive asset for some lucky team. Unfortunately for Cameron, SBC Park is probably the most comparable stadium to Safeco Field, so you couldn’t expect that home/road split to suddenly disappear where he to sign with the Giants. But as a right-handed batter, the likelihood is that there should be a sizeable improvement. As for how he fits on this team… Cameron’s presence on defense would help the pitching staff immensely. The only problem is how the team would handle Grissom. If Grissom were to become a platoon outfielder in right, then this could be a very good move. But if Grissom became an everyday corner right fielder, keeping his hacktastic bat against RHPs in the lineup, the Giants offense would suffer immensely.
An affordable three year deal for Cameron would be ideal if the Giants pursue him. He will be 31 this season, so there is a question of how long he will be able to keep up his phenomenal defense. Once his defense becomes league average, he is no longer an asset.
Shannon Stewart
| vs LH | vs RH | Overall | |||||||||||||||||
| Year | AB | BA | OBP | SLG | AB | BA | OBP | SLG | AB | BA | OBP | SLG | |||||||
| 2000 | 139 | .309 | .340 | .468 | 444 | .322 | .371 | .534 | 583 | .319 | .363 | .518 | |||||||
| 2001 | 117 | .333 | .397 | .479 | 523 | .312 | .365 | .459 | 640 | .316 | .371 | .463 | |||||||
| 2002 | 129 | .302 | .392 | .442 | 448 | .304 | .365 | .442 | 577 | .303 | .371 | .442 | |||||||
| 2003 | 139 | .331 | .389 | .504 | 434 | .300 | .357 | .445 | 573 | .307 | .364 | .459 | |||||||
Shannon Stewart is a good player, and a valuable guy to have at the top of your lineup. That said, he is not an MVP-caliber player, as some have foolishly argued this year. He played well after coming over to Minnesota in a trade for Bobby Kielty this summer, but he did not put up eye-popping numbers. Barring a move of Bonds to first base, Stewart is not a very good fit on this team. SBC’s right field is not a good home for a poor defensive outfielder with a very weak arm. Plus, Stewart's strong play on a division winner will likely cause him to be overvalued on the free agent market. So don’t expect this to happen. Nevertheless, imagine a lineup that begins like this:
Ray Durham
Shannon Stewart
Barry Bonds
Edgardo Alfonso
Adding another solid bat at 1B or LF (once again, if Bonds were to change positions) could make this a very potent offense. Stewart has some serious speed on the basepaths, so whenever he advances to second after Barry is walked, he would be a bigger threat than most players to score from second on a single. Minnesota, possessing a plethora of solid corner outfielders, needs to improve at 2B and SS. I predict that the Twins will defy logic and resign Stewart instead.
Raul Ibanez
| vs LH | vs RH | Overall | |||||||||||||||||
| Year | AB | BA | OBP | SLG | AB | BA | OBP | SLG | AB | BA | OBP | SLG | |||||||
| 2001 | 20 | .200 | .333 | .450 | 259 | .286 | .354 | .498 | 279 | .280 | .353 | .495 | |||||||
| 2002 | 124 | .274 | .291 | .403 | 373 | .300 | .363 | .582 | 497 | .294 | .346 | .537 | |||||||
| 2003 | 204 | .245 | .291 | .392 | 404 | .319 | .371 | .485 | 608 | .294 | .345 | .454 | |||||||
At 31 years old, Ibanez probably isn’t a good investment for anything beyond 2 years. He’s not particularly apt on the defensive side of things, so RF in San Francisco isn’t the most appropriate place for him. He could be a fit at 1B, but I worry that we may see a decline similar to what we witnessed with J.T. Snow a few years ago. And while the production Ibanez has provided for Kansas City the past few years has been impressive, I worry that his short history of success with the bat may not last much longer.
Jeromy Burnitz
| vs LH | vs RH | Overall | |||||||||||||||||
| Year | AB | BA | OBP | SLG | AB | BA | OBP | SLG | AB | BA | OBP | SLG | |||||||
| 2000 | 160 | .238 | .347 | .438 | 404 | .230 | .359 | .463 | 564 | .232 | .356 | .456 | |||||||
| 2001 | 161 | .224 | .288 | .466 | 401 | .262 | .369 | .519 | 562 | .251 | .347 | .504 | |||||||
| 2002 | 121 | .174 | .242 | .281 | 358 | .229 | .333 | .394 | 479 | .215 | .311 | .365 | |||||||
| 2003 | 136 | .250 | .299 | .449 | 328 | .235 | .299 | .503 | 464 | .239 | .299 | .487 | |||||||
No thank you. You’ve got to love his Isolated Slugging percentage (ISO = SLG-AVG), but Burnitz, who will be 35 next season, is a prime candidate to see a quick and sharp decline in his power numbers. And with that ugly OBP, I wouldn’t want him around my team when it happens.
Raul Mondesi
| vs LH | vs RH | Overall | |||||||||||||||||
| Year | AB | BA | OBP | SLG | AB | BA | OBP | SLG | AB | BA | OBP | SLG | |||||||
| 2000 | 74 | .311 | .386 | .541 | 314 | .261 | .315 | .519 | 388 | .271 | .329 | .523 | |||||||
| 2001 | 107 | .299 | .453 | .542 | 465 | .241 | .312 | .432 | 572 | .252 | .342 | .453 | |||||||
| 2002 | 135 | .244 | .346 | .496 | 434 | .228 | .295 | .412 | 569 | .232 | .308 | .432 | |||||||
| 2003 | 122 | .262 | .319 | .525 | 401 | .274 | .350 | .471 | 523 | .272 | .343 | .484 | |||||||
Ugh. I don’t consider Mondesi a candidate for job with the Giants, but I have this worry deep down that Sabean might. It’s not likely, but it’s just the sort of thing that would cause me to give up on the current management of the team. Yeah, he kills lefties. Whoopty-Doo. It’s not too difficult to find right-handed corner outfielders that can feast on southpaws. Luckily, Mondesi has something of a bad rep in the clubhouse, which by itself should be enough to keep the Giants away.
Juan Gonzalez
| vs LH | vs RH | Overall | |||||||||||||||||
| Year | AB | BA | OBP | SLG | AB | BA | OBP | SLG | AB | BA | OBP | SLG | |||||||
| 2000 | 114 | .360 | .403 | .579 | 347 | .265 | .315 | .481 | 461 | .289 | .337 | .505 | |||||||
| 2001 | 117 | .368 | .417 | .675 | 415 | .313 | .356 | .566 | 532 | .325 | .370 | .590 | |||||||
| 2002 | 81 | .358 | .384 | .580 | 196 | .250 | .300 | .398 | 277 | .282 | .324 | .451 | |||||||
| 2003 | 99 | .273 | .321 | .434 | 228 | .303 | .333 | .632 | 327 | .294 | .329 | .572 | |||||||
While Juan-gone has been overrated by baseball’s mainstream media for most of his career, he is still a very productive hitter. As has always been the case with Gonzalez, he doesn’t often step into the batters box with the idea that a walk is acceptable. But with an average that has generally hovered between .290 and .325 to go along with some very impressive power, Gonzales is still a good hitter to hit in the fifth spot, with the idea that he can drive in the high-OBP guys at the top of the lineup. For the purposes of filling out the 2004 Giants team, Gonzalez is an unlikely target. He’s not a very good defensive player, and he has proven to be extremely fragile in the latter parts of his career. Although the feeling isn’t mutual, he wants to stay in Texas. In all likelihood, Gonzalez will stay in the junior circuit where he can DH.
Friday, October 17, 2003
Crazy Eights
I was going to write in detail about the parallel between Game 7 of the ALCS and Game 6 of the NLCS -- about the Cubs and the Red Sox both being five outs away from the World Series with a three run lead; about the horrible decision making of Dusty Baker and Grady Little in not recognizing that their ace, the best pitcher in their respective league, had lost command by that point -- but it looks as though approximately forty million people have beat me to the punch. There's no need for redundancy. If you want a reason why Little was wrong to leave Pedro on the mound in the 8th inning, look no further than Joe Sheehan's daily prospectus from today. And for a great piece contrasting Dusty Baker's failures versus Jack McKeon's success in the NLCS, read Rany Jazayerli's article, Season on the Brink, from yesterday. Once again, if you're not a premium subscriber to Baseball Prospectus take a serious look at it, and read the free articles they have available.
Let me say this... I haven't been this apathetic about a World Series in a long time. A large part of it is because of which two teams are still playing -- with the possible exception of a Marlins vs Twins series, there was no less appealing World Series scenario for me than this one -- but there's also the fact that I can't possibly see the series being anything but a letdown after the most riveting round of league championship series that I have ever witnessed, and the closest thing to matching the excitement of the greatest World Series ever.
Let me say this... I haven't been this apathetic about a World Series in a long time. A large part of it is because of which two teams are still playing -- with the possible exception of a Marlins vs Twins series, there was no less appealing World Series scenario for me than this one -- but there's also the fact that I can't possibly see the series being anything but a letdown after the most riveting round of league championship series that I have ever witnessed, and the closest thing to matching the excitement of the greatest World Series ever.
Thursday, October 16, 2003
There is no Joy in Wrigleyville
The outlook wasn’t brilliant for the Cub faithful that day,
The series stood three to three, with but one game left to play.
And when Cabrera took Wood deep, making the score three to oh,
A pall-like silence fell over the crowd, ceding defeat to this foe.
But not all gave up hope, and unwilling to accept their cursed fate,
Rallied behind the boys in blue, wishing a comeback for which it was not too late.
Then mighty Wood unleashed a swing, giving the ball a soaring ride,
And into the bleachers the ball fell, three to three, the game was tied.
In the third Sosa walked, bringing Alou to the plate,
Who then crushed the ball to left, hoping to score his teammate.
Exploding past the leftfield stands, the ball landed on Waveland Avenue,
The Wrigley crowd celebrated; Five to three, boys in blue.
But the lead was short-lived, for in the fifth Florida rallied,
And with two walks and two hits, three runs the fish had tallied.
And then in the sixth, after adding one run more,
Florida led seven to five, quieting the Wrigley faithful roar.
The despair would continue, the home team blanked one more inning,
And with each scoreless frame, came less chance of the Cubs winning.
The Marlins upped the lead to four, adding two runs for good measure,
The score now nine to five in the seventh, no loyal Cub fan could find pleasure.
In the Cubs half of the seventh, O’Leary gave the ball flight,
A lined shot into the bleachers, it was a home run to right.
The score now stood nine to six, the lead one run slimmer,
Offering hope to the Cubs faithful, albeit just a glimmer.
With two innings to go, the heart of their lineup ahead,
The crowd started to buzz, as if returning from the dead.
Three runs for the tie, four runs would win the pennant,
And the Cubs would stake a claim, finally a World Series tenant.
Oh, somewhere in this favored land, stadium lights are shining bright,
The organ pumping tunes on a cold World Series night.
And somewhere, men are smiling, and hearts of little children roam,
but there is no joy in Wrigleyville --
the Cubs are staying home.
Wednesday, October 15, 2003
What is it about Game 6?
Whether it's Carlton Fisk willing a ball to stay fair as it sails over the Green Monster, or a blown call at first base giving new life to the Royals, or an easy ground ball passing through Bill Buckner's legs, or Kirby Puckett hitting a game winning home run in extra innings, or the Giants blowing a 5-0 lead late in the game... Game 6 seems to provide more series-defining moments than all of other games combined. These moments are simultaneously about resiliency and collapse. They are about looking defeat in the eye and saying "I will not die today!" And they are also about comfort and overconfidence, about snatching defeat from the jaws of victory. Watching the Giants collapse in Game 6 one year ago, I thought I had felt the lowest of possible emotions one can experience about sports.
That was until my experience at Wrigley Field last night.
For seven innings, I was awash in an atmosphere that was more electric than any I had ever seen at a baseball game. Any time the fans sensed something of significance, all of Wrigley took to its feet. There was a buzz in the air, talk of celebration on the streets after the game. For the first time, Cubs fans were confident. Bernie Mac sang the seventh inning stretch, singing "Root, root, root for the Champions!"
And then, with one out in the eighth, Luis Castillo hit a soft fly ball down the left field line. Moises Alou raced over to the wall, lept in the air and...
...everything changed.
The mood of the ballpark became morbid. Defeat became inevitable. As a non-partisan fan attending the game, detached from the roller coaster of emotions, it was a surreal experience. As fans directed their vitriol at the young man who cost Alou a chance at the foul ball, the Cubs fell apart on the field. A walk and a wild pitch, a hit, an error, an intentional walk, a sacrifice fly, a baffling intentional walk, a bases clearing double, a run scoring single. In all, 8 runs crossed the plate as this series went from a Cubs coming out party, the team celebrating its first World Series appearance since 1945, to another sad part of the Cubs sorry history. The Curse of the Billy Goat lives. Suddenly, victory seems inconceivable. The mood in Chicago is one of futile hope.
Forgetting the Curse
While I appreciate the backdrop that the story of the Cubs' curse provides, it's important to remember one thing. The curse is bunk. It's a crutch that allows people to blame the Cubs failures on events outside of the team's control.
In this case, the scapegoat (no pun intended) is a young man who had the misfortune of being in the right place at the wrong time. And as people around Chicagoland direct the blame at his action, it's important to remember one thing: the fan did nothing wrong. Now "wrong" may be a relative word. In the sense that it may have cost the Cubs the second out of the inning, then it was wrong. But officially, the correct call was made. There was no fan interference. The ball does not look like it was over the field of play, it appeared to be directly over the railing and the fence. Thus Alou did not have a right to the ball.
I feel sorry for the fan. If he had known that Alou was there, he probably would have backed off. But watching the replay, you can see that he watched the ball the entire way. Alou came from behind him, and was about eight feet below. Now, his life has been altered by one simple mistake at a baseball game. The replay with his face has been shown thousands of times on various highlights shows. The Chicago Sun-Times ran a story today naming the fan, where he works, a where he went to school -- a decision for which the paper should be publicly castigated. Apparently, the fan (who I will not name) did not go to work today and has disconnected his phone. Due to the irrational importance some fans put on sports, I fear for his safety if the Cubs lose tonight.
The real blame needs to pointed at the team and its manager. If you want to place fault for what happened in this game, begin with Dusty Baker and his decision to allow Mark Prior to throw 116 pitches in Game 2. After 6 innings, the Cubs had a comfortable 12-2 lead, and yet Baker sent Prior out for one more inning. With the workload that Prior has been carrying at the end of the season and in the playoffs, that was an opportune time to let Prior start resting for his Game 6 start. As it was, Prior looked good, although not quite up to par, for 6 innings last night. In the 7th, he appeared to lose a little command, but got through while maintaining the shutout. Then came the 8th inning.
For all the grief the fan has received and will receive for what transpired, it’s important to remember that after that play, the score was still 3-0 and there were still two strikes on Castillo. But as the Marlins started ripping Prior's pitches, it became apparent that this wasn’t the same Mark Prior. By all accounts, he was leaving pitches up in the zone, indicating he had lost command, and had lost 2-3 mph off of his fastball. That was a red flag indicating that something was not right, and that a change needed to be made. But Baker left Prior in the game, and Marlins continued to make solid contact. By the time Prior was pulled, the score was 3-3 and runners stood on second and third.
Baker made one more strange decision three batters later. With the Marlins ahead 4-3 and runners again on second and third, Baker had Kyle Farnsworth intentionally walk Todd Hollandsworth to get to Mike Mordecai. Now Mordecai is certainly not a great hitter, but by issuing an intentional pass to the impotent bat of Hollandsworth and loading the bases, you are putting your pitcher in a situation where he must throw strikes. Farnsworth is a good reliever, but the only pitch he can throw over the plate with any consistency is his fastball, and Mordecai is a fastball hitter. As he later put it, Mordecai was sitting “dead red,” and turned on a Farnsworth fastball for a bases clearing double, effectively ending the game. Pierre singled in one more run for good measure, but the damage had already been done.
The series was headed for a seventh game.
Unsatisfying Vindication
Like many Giants fans, I have long been critical of certain aspects of Dusty Baker’s managerial style, most notably his affliction for playing “proven veterans” of marginal ability over promising youngsters and his tendencies to overwork his starting pitchers. Watching him manage another team made for an interesting study this season. First was the unwillingness to play Hee Sop Choi. After beginning the season as the left-handed bat in a lefty/righty platoon, Choi was forced to the DL with a concussion. Upon returning, he found himself planted on the bench most games as Baker opted to play Karros every day, despite the pedestrian ability he displays against righties. This continued until the acquisition of Randal Simon banished Choi from the lineup completely. In the pitching department, Kerry Wood, Mark Prior, and Carlos Zambrano all carried heavy workloads this year; raising the question of how well they would respond in the postseason and if they had been overexposed to injury risk. Zambrano began to struggle as the season wound down, and has generally not pitched well in the playoffs. Prior had pitched brilliantly up until the 7th inning of last night's game, and it’s hard to dismiss thoughts that fatigue may have finally set in. Now, with Game 7 just hours away, the Cub faithful have to hope that Kerry Wood does not fall prey to those same rigors of a heavy workload.
That was until my experience at Wrigley Field last night.
For seven innings, I was awash in an atmosphere that was more electric than any I had ever seen at a baseball game. Any time the fans sensed something of significance, all of Wrigley took to its feet. There was a buzz in the air, talk of celebration on the streets after the game. For the first time, Cubs fans were confident. Bernie Mac sang the seventh inning stretch, singing "Root, root, root for the Champions!"
And then, with one out in the eighth, Luis Castillo hit a soft fly ball down the left field line. Moises Alou raced over to the wall, lept in the air and...
...everything changed.
The mood of the ballpark became morbid. Defeat became inevitable. As a non-partisan fan attending the game, detached from the roller coaster of emotions, it was a surreal experience. As fans directed their vitriol at the young man who cost Alou a chance at the foul ball, the Cubs fell apart on the field. A walk and a wild pitch, a hit, an error, an intentional walk, a sacrifice fly, a baffling intentional walk, a bases clearing double, a run scoring single. In all, 8 runs crossed the plate as this series went from a Cubs coming out party, the team celebrating its first World Series appearance since 1945, to another sad part of the Cubs sorry history. The Curse of the Billy Goat lives. Suddenly, victory seems inconceivable. The mood in Chicago is one of futile hope.
Forgetting the Curse
While I appreciate the backdrop that the story of the Cubs' curse provides, it's important to remember one thing. The curse is bunk. It's a crutch that allows people to blame the Cubs failures on events outside of the team's control.
In this case, the scapegoat (no pun intended) is a young man who had the misfortune of being in the right place at the wrong time. And as people around Chicagoland direct the blame at his action, it's important to remember one thing: the fan did nothing wrong. Now "wrong" may be a relative word. In the sense that it may have cost the Cubs the second out of the inning, then it was wrong. But officially, the correct call was made. There was no fan interference. The ball does not look like it was over the field of play, it appeared to be directly over the railing and the fence. Thus Alou did not have a right to the ball.
I feel sorry for the fan. If he had known that Alou was there, he probably would have backed off. But watching the replay, you can see that he watched the ball the entire way. Alou came from behind him, and was about eight feet below. Now, his life has been altered by one simple mistake at a baseball game. The replay with his face has been shown thousands of times on various highlights shows. The Chicago Sun-Times ran a story today naming the fan, where he works, a where he went to school -- a decision for which the paper should be publicly castigated. Apparently, the fan (who I will not name) did not go to work today and has disconnected his phone. Due to the irrational importance some fans put on sports, I fear for his safety if the Cubs lose tonight.
The real blame needs to pointed at the team and its manager. If you want to place fault for what happened in this game, begin with Dusty Baker and his decision to allow Mark Prior to throw 116 pitches in Game 2. After 6 innings, the Cubs had a comfortable 12-2 lead, and yet Baker sent Prior out for one more inning. With the workload that Prior has been carrying at the end of the season and in the playoffs, that was an opportune time to let Prior start resting for his Game 6 start. As it was, Prior looked good, although not quite up to par, for 6 innings last night. In the 7th, he appeared to lose a little command, but got through while maintaining the shutout. Then came the 8th inning.
For all the grief the fan has received and will receive for what transpired, it’s important to remember that after that play, the score was still 3-0 and there were still two strikes on Castillo. But as the Marlins started ripping Prior's pitches, it became apparent that this wasn’t the same Mark Prior. By all accounts, he was leaving pitches up in the zone, indicating he had lost command, and had lost 2-3 mph off of his fastball. That was a red flag indicating that something was not right, and that a change needed to be made. But Baker left Prior in the game, and Marlins continued to make solid contact. By the time Prior was pulled, the score was 3-3 and runners stood on second and third.
Baker made one more strange decision three batters later. With the Marlins ahead 4-3 and runners again on second and third, Baker had Kyle Farnsworth intentionally walk Todd Hollandsworth to get to Mike Mordecai. Now Mordecai is certainly not a great hitter, but by issuing an intentional pass to the impotent bat of Hollandsworth and loading the bases, you are putting your pitcher in a situation where he must throw strikes. Farnsworth is a good reliever, but the only pitch he can throw over the plate with any consistency is his fastball, and Mordecai is a fastball hitter. As he later put it, Mordecai was sitting “dead red,” and turned on a Farnsworth fastball for a bases clearing double, effectively ending the game. Pierre singled in one more run for good measure, but the damage had already been done.
The series was headed for a seventh game.
Unsatisfying Vindication
Like many Giants fans, I have long been critical of certain aspects of Dusty Baker’s managerial style, most notably his affliction for playing “proven veterans” of marginal ability over promising youngsters and his tendencies to overwork his starting pitchers. Watching him manage another team made for an interesting study this season. First was the unwillingness to play Hee Sop Choi. After beginning the season as the left-handed bat in a lefty/righty platoon, Choi was forced to the DL with a concussion. Upon returning, he found himself planted on the bench most games as Baker opted to play Karros every day, despite the pedestrian ability he displays against righties. This continued until the acquisition of Randal Simon banished Choi from the lineup completely. In the pitching department, Kerry Wood, Mark Prior, and Carlos Zambrano all carried heavy workloads this year; raising the question of how well they would respond in the postseason and if they had been overexposed to injury risk. Zambrano began to struggle as the season wound down, and has generally not pitched well in the playoffs. Prior had pitched brilliantly up until the 7th inning of last night's game, and it’s hard to dismiss thoughts that fatigue may have finally set in. Now, with Game 7 just hours away, the Cub faithful have to hope that Kerry Wood does not fall prey to those same rigors of a heavy workload.
